Cannabis Returns Could Top the Earnings of Three Industries Combined

It’s like forecasting early gold reserves in the heady days of California’s Gold Rush era. Revenue estimates that will come from legalizing marijuana are growing almost like weed itself.

In analyzing the ballot initiative to legalize recreational use of marijuana, California’s legislative analyst and finance director estimates that legalizing marijuana for casual use could net as much as $1 billion in new tax revenue for the state and local governments.

That estimated revenue, however, dwarfs the amount calculated by the state’s tax board, the Board of Equalization, based on legal medical marijuana-related sales.

The tax board reported $570 million in taxable income in 2014, amounting to $49.5 million in taxes owed to the state from sales generated by the 1,623 medical marijuana dispensaries that registered with the state and filed taxes in 2014.

The problem, according to experts, is that of much of the industry is still underground due to...

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