Even so, sales through private retailers and regulator Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis’ online portal should reach $540 million for 2020, showing the legal sector is taking an increasing bite out of the illicit market that still maintains a strong presence, said Shah.

“This is a positive sign for regulators and market participants who are looking for the legal cannabis system to take a bigger chunk out of the illicit trade,” states Shah’s latest market report, which uses Statistics Canada data.

Ontario, with a population more than three times the size of Alberta’s but with fewer than 200 stores, should have 2020 sales of $645 million, said the Cannabis Benchmarks report.

Those rising Alberta earnings are driven mainly by a proliferation of stores — 524 have been approved by the AGLC.

It’s seen monthly sales figures in the sector go from just under $20 million in June 2019 to nearly $47 million a year later — and should hit $51.3 million in December, said Shah.

But that brings into play the law of diminishing returns in a province with 12 per cent of the nation’s population but 48 per cent of its cannabis stores, he said.

“It’s a very big disconnect with the rest of the country,” said Shah.

“Every store that opens up takes sales from other stores — it’s more of a plateauing effect.”

That revenue pie should become even more fractured if the AGLC’s recent store approval pace continues, which would translate to 600 stores by year’s end, he said.

Many in the industry say illicit sellers, many of whom operate glossy websites with a wide variety of products, still control the lion’s share of the market.

One Calgarian who frequently orders from illicit websites said he sees no reason to purchase legally.

“There’s about 100 delivery (services) for Calgary, it’s a better marketplace and they come right to my door,” said Gary, not his real name.

“I don’t go to the stores because they’re expensive and the quality is dubious — it doesn’t interest me.”

But Gary said he hopes Canada’s experiment in legal recreational cannabis succeeds “because the world is watching.”

While the AGLC supplies online cannabis orders by mail, the private retail industry is barred from making curbside deliveries.

Shah said wholesale prices on the legal market have fallen almost $2 per gram since pot became legal nearly two years ago, making the sector more competitive with the black market.

Common discounts and a much wider variety of products, which includes vapes, beverages, edibles and other derivatives, have had the same effect, he said.