‘Tis the season for America’s favorite foodie holiday, and whether turkey, tofurkey, or none of the above are on the menu, this is sure to be a Thanksgiving like no other. With Covid-19 spikes turning the U.S. map red and growing concerns about the capacity of states to handle an even higher coronavirus positivity rate if citizens choose to gather, some thought leaders in the cannabis industry are taking a stab at predicting the impact on Thanksgiving sales.

In June 2019, FTI Consulting published Part 1 of Cannabis: Valuation Approaches in an Evolving Market, which explored legalization of cannabis for recreational use in Canada, risk factors, and the range of complexities to consider for corporate valuations in the emerging Canadian cannabis industry.

Marijuana is among the fastest-growing industries worldwide, and Canada -- one of the largest nations to have legalized recreational marijuana entirely -- is one of the top markets. Since that October 2018 legalization, cannabis sales in the Great White North have soared. In 2019, Canadians bought $1.2 billion worth of legal cannabis, with the majority of the sales coming from Alberta, Quebec, and Ontario.

Marijuana stocks rallied on Tuesday, with both Canadian and U.S.

The number of cases of COVID-19 has spiked in the province of Ontario causing new lockdown orders. It was reported that more than 1,400 new coronavirus cases had been recorded in Ontario on Friday. Toronto has been the hot zone for the latest outbreak as the city broke its record for new infections on Tuesday and has reported several hundred new cases each day this week.

On Friday, November 20, 2020, Attorney General Doug Downey approved an emergency order placing the Toronto and Peel regions under a new lockdown to combat COVID-19. On Sunday, Ontario Regulation 654/20 was made allowing cannabis retail stores located in the lockdown regions to operate through e-commerce, curbside pickup, and home delivery services causing cannabis stores to once again pivot to online orders.

Industry insiders believe Democrat-held Congress would likely take up the SAFE Banking and MORE Acts, generating long-term market effects.

Despite ongoing attempts by the Trump Administration to delay the transition, President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris are expected to take power on January 20, 2021, creating an impact on the cannabis stock market that could be substantial. 

As we all know by now, the COVID-19 pandemic created a massive shift in the way consumers spend money. Specifically, it caused a massive increase in e-commerce sales and an equally drastic decrease in sales at brick-and-mortar locations. 

This changing dynamic affected every industry—from retail to consumer goods to groceries—but the way it affected cannabis is unique. 

The cannabis industry, unlike most other industries, had a virtually non-existent e-commerce presence prior to 2020. This was by design. Regulations made it illegal to buy cannabis any other way besides physically going to a dispensary, and impractical for businesses to get ahead of the curve.